Let's see now . . . Vladimir
Putin couldn't wait until May 25 for a scheduled referendum that probably would
have paved a peaceful and fairly acceptable way for the Crimean
Peninsula to leave Ukraine and
return to Mother Russia, its home for much of modern history. For reasons
unclear, Putin decided to strong arm his way in with a show of military force
to back a puppet Crimean Premier who obligingly rushed a vote with predictable
results.
A solid majority of residents of Crimea
are ethnic Russians who speak Russian. Most of the minority Tatars and
Ukrainians refused to vote as a protest of the Russian power play. The vote was
overwhelmingly pro-Russia. Surprise! The process of incorporating the peninsula
into the Russian Federation
has begun.
It is unlikely that Ukraine will
make any military response. Crimea has provided bases for Russia 's Black
Sea Fleet for
200 years. A recent estimate put the force at 24 warships, two
submarines, and 16,000 sailors and marines. On top of that,
Meanwhile, Barack Obama
informed the world that if what has happened were to happen, Russia would
face "serious consequences." Lots of people, apparently including
Putin, aren't taking that message very seriously. So far, the consequences have
been freezing bank accounts of a few dozen individuals who promoted the Crimean
spectacle. The U.S.
seized some assets, the European Union froze more.
What more-serious actions are
likely to take place? Not many. The parties involved are entirely too much
involved in the world of business to take a dive into the world of war. They
depend on each other.
Nearly two thirds of Russian
exports are gas and oil, and about half of that is sold to European Union
countries. France
has lucrative contracts to build Russian ships. Germans have some $22 billion
invested in assets within Russia .
British bankers profit handsomely by serving as a financial center away from
home for Russian billionaires. The
unhealthiest U.S.
symbol, the Golden Arches, appears across the Russian landscape, as do other
American corporate logos.
It looks like a classic
standoff. It probably will stay that way unless the few observers who think
Putin has lost his mind are right. Could it be world leaders finally will act
with wisdom rather than playground bravado that in the past has escalated into
wars bringing misery to millions? Lets hope they continue to fire off
sanctions, not missiles.