The Geezer is getting a bit tired of reading and hearing about election politics, and the silly season has barely worked up a head of steam. It seems everybody with a keyboard, mouth, or touch pad has issued some sort of forecast. So, here is mine:
I think Mitt Romney’s solid win (39.4 percent in a large field) in yesterday’s New Hampshire primary ensured he will be the Republican nominee for president.
Ron Paul finished second in New Hampshire with 22.8 percent. No one else came close. I think Paul’s supporters, a strange mix of libertarians, young Republicans, and independents who learn rightward, eventually will decide to push Paul’s views by convincing him to set up a new third party, or run as a Libertarian.
I think Paul’s third party candidacy will siphon off enough votes to do Romney in this November in a close election, just as Ralph Nader’s candidacy did Al Gore in not long ago. Thus, Barack Obama will win reelection in 2012.
I think the Democrats will gain a majority in the Senate, but they will not take enough seats for a House majority. We will be in for another four years of frustrating stalemate in Washington.
Stop by at the end of November, and we will review this set of opinions to see if the Geezer’s views have become reality.