Wednesday, January 11, 2012

A Fearless Forecast


The Geezer is getting a bit tired of reading and hearing about election politics, and the silly season has barely worked up a head of steam.  It seems everybody with a keyboard, mouth, or touch pad has issued some sort of forecast.  So, here is mine:

I think Mitt Romney’s solid win (39.4 percent in a large field) in yesterday’s New Hampshire primary ensured he will be the Republican nominee for president.

Ron Paul finished second in New Hampshire with 22.8 percent.  No one else came close. I think Paul’s supporters, a strange mix of libertarians, young Republicans, and independents who learn rightward, eventually will decide to push Paul’s views by convincing him to set up a new third party, or run as a Libertarian.

I think Paul’s third party candidacy will siphon off enough votes to do Romney in this November in a close election, just as Ralph Nader’s candidacy did Al Gore in not long ago. Thus, Barack Obama will win reelection in 2012.  

I think the Democrats will gain a majority in the Senate, but they will not take enough seats for a House majority. We will be in for another four years of frustrating stalemate in Washington.  

Stop by at the end of November, and we will review this set of opinions to see if the Geezer’s views have become reality.


10 comments:

Sightings said...

You are a bold and courageous man to make such predictions. I stopped making political prognostications after I said in 1980 that there was no way R. Reagan could ever be elected president because he was too conservative.

Now I just stick to weather forecasts: It will be warmer in July than it is now. Guaranteed!

Anonymous said...

I most certainly will check with you at the end of November to compare this blog with reality of that time. I cannot argue, at this point, with anything in the blog (even though I do have a couple differing opinions). The absence of the name Gingrich in the blog was quite pleasing.--Bill Hamilton

schmidleysscribblins,wordpress.com said...

I couldn't resist this post. I think the final percent for Romney in MA was 39.4 percent. David was thrilled. Before Obama can lay a glove on him, the other so-called Republicans will shred Romnay with their lying attack adds. Too bad these other "Republicans" don't have a clue as to what venture capitalists do.

Dick Klade said...

Thanks, Diane. I've corrected the vote percentages. I my initial ones from a report that must have been early. The corrections make Romney's win even more solid.

Dick Klade said...

Oops. "I took my. . ."

Speaking of "oops," Diane--the Massachusetts primary is not for a while.

Anonymous said...

Hope you are right. little bug

JHawk23 said...

You are indeed brave to stick your neck out now, since I think the rate of economic recovery will play a huge role.

I agree a third-party effort could certainly change the outcome of the election. With the GOP more focused on "defeating Obama" than on solving the country's problems, however, I wonder if one really can materialize?

Kay said...

I certainly hope President Obama wins, but I'm not looking forward to more stalemates and Congressional idiocy.

schmidleysscribblins,wordpress.com said...

New Hampshire was part of Massachusetts for a long time. Pardon me, I'm stuck in the eighteenth century. You know how it is with historians.

joared said...

Your predictions sound plausible. Fun prognostications. Wonder if there are any wild cards out there?

Interesting statistics from several sources on News Hour recently about venture capitalists -- what might be considered low percentages they have saving jobs but making lots of profit for themselves. Could they do better and make more modest profits if they really cared about employees and saving companies? Interesting question.