“We went through all that, and nothing has changed.”
That view keeps popping up among the myriad analyses of the
interesting, and frequently annoying, election campaign just completed. The
Geezer, months ago, predicted four more years of Washington gridlock should President Obama
be reelected. I’ve changed my mind.
Yes, the arithmetic in the political landscape changed only
slightly. Republicans lost some seats in the House (they may well regain them
in mid-term elections, as often happens) but retained a majority. Democrats
gained only a couple of seats in the Senate, keeping a majority, but falling
well short of the 60 needed to be able to easily push legislation through that
chamber.
However, the legislative power positions changed
dramatically. There are reasons for confidence that some useful things will get
done in the months ahead
Perhaps most important, the Republicans took a real
shellacking in areas that bode ill for the future of the party. President Obama
won handily among young women, and barring major changes in Republican
approaches those voters are likely to be Democrats in the future. Hispanics
turned out in large numbers. Just a few years back, 44 percent of them voted
for George W. Bush. This time, 70 percent backed President Obama. The Democrat even
was favored by Cuban-Americans, who previously were pretty solidly in the
conservative camp.
Why the big shift in the Hispanic vote? I became acquainted with many Hispanics in
contacts with workers and contractors in 11 years of serving as a homeowner
association accountant. We also had several Hispanic neighbors. With few
exceptions, these folks were hard-working, religious, family-oriented, and
quite conservative on social issues. They were as likely to vote for
Republicans as Democrats, and some did in the recent election.
My Hispanic contacts also were proud people with a low
tolerance for insults. Governor Romney should have realized that when he talked
about “self-deportation.” Republicans should have been aware of it when they
opposed the “Dream Act.” Latinos are the fastest growing segment of the
American population. If the Republicans don’t clean up their act in relations
with them, the party is doomed. Republican leaders know that.
So we will not see gridlock blocking reform of our
antiquated immigration policies, something President Obama promised before his
first term and was unable to deliver. Now it will happen, either in one big
package or in pieces of new legislation.
There will be some form of “amnesty”
for illegal immigrants, although the Republicans will call it something else.
It would not be surprising if Republicans introduce all or several reform
bills. They need to claim credit for positive actions that might help them get
back into the good graces of Hispanics.
Women gained representation in Congress. This development
coupled with the clear message from female voters that they want to halt
attempts to roll back women’s rights should put a stop to right-wing proposals
on abortion and contraception, issues thought to have been settled long ago.
Those issues have diverted Congress from tackling current problems.
Tea Party
arch-conservatives lost ground and influence in this election. The most extreme
of them (think Todd Akin and Richard Mourdock) failed to win seats Republicans
normally would win.
President Obama gained power well beyond what the arithmetic
shows. After his first election he decided to use Democratic Party majorities
in Congress to win passage of the Affordable Care Act. He spent a lot of
political capital. That almost cost him reelection, as the adverse reaction
obviously was greater than he expected. All that is behind him now.
Now the candidate who vowed to dismantle Obamacare “on my
first day in office” has been soundly defeated. Romney and other Republicans
admitted along the way that Obamacare includes provisions they support. It also
has some problems that need fixing. We can expect compromise here. Obamacare
will stay, and the parties will work together to repair flaws in it.
Of course, the crisis of the moment is the possibility the
nation will “fall over the fiscal cliff” at the end of next month as Congress
and the President refuse to work out a new compromise to curtail the federal
deficit. That is very unlikely to happen. President Obama phoned House Speaker
John Boehner soon after the election ended. They are said to have agreed to be
cautious about public pronouncements that would make fiscal negotiations very
difficult. The rhetoric has been rather mild.
One action may simply be a postponement of legislation until
the new Congress convenes in January. Worry warts might find that
frightening. It would be a positive act.
The longer we wait for financial actions that reduce government spending the
more time the economy has to continue recovering. The federal budget is not
like a household budget. Governments should cut spending when times are good,
not when they’re tough.
Pre- and post-election polls showed who has the power. The
American public gives Congress a scant 10 percent approval rating. President
Obama won about 53 percent of the popular vote and a landslide in the electoral
count that really matters. If the Republican-controlled House fails to propose
or approve a way to step back from the “cliff,” the blame will fall squarely on
them.
Another reason for optimism about dealing with the deficit
is that the heavy work has been done. President Obama and Congressman Boehner
were close to a deal 18 months ago. It was said to have been killed because of
Tea Party opposition that Boehner could not overcome. Now the Tea Party types are much less likely
to block constructive action.
Considerable analysis of alternatives preceded
the Obama-Boehner deal that almost became reality. Many ideas came from the
Simpson-Bowles Commission, a nonpartisan group whose leaders offered many sound
proposals, including tax increases as well as spending cuts. Lots of data are already assembled to guide budget and deficit decisions.
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He now has the power to move ahead |
In his first term, President Obama had to move with caution
after his party lost big in the mid-term elections. The economy, which is well
on the way to righting itself as economies do when they emerge from down
cycles, was very slow to gain ground. Mr. Obama could ill-afford any rash
actions that would end his days in office.
Some say the President now must take some sort of heroic action
to “create his legacy” or “become a significant president.” Nonsense. Mr. Obama already is assured of an
important place in the annals of history.
Firsts are the stuff of historic presidencies. Mr. Obama, of
course, is the first African-American president. He will be credited with being
the first president to end two wars. And, he succeeded in moving the nation
forward on the path to universal health care, something Democratic Party
leaders have tried and failed to do for more than 80 years.
President Obama by nature seeks compromise with his political
opponents, but he now can be very selective about making concessions to the
Republicans in Congress. All he really has to do is say “Yes” or “No.” He’s in
the catbird seat.